2020-06-25 19:33:41 UTC
Yesterday, we learned the country is not very happy with President Donald Trump
at the moment as new polling showed him trailing Joe Biden by 14 points.
National polls are a good generalized mood barometer, but, as we all now know
from our experience four eons ago in 2016, the national mood doesnt necessarily
translate into Electoral College Ws. On Thursday, however, we learned that a
repeat of Trumps electoral strategy of winning over a couple thousand white
voters in key Rust Belt swing states is also looking like a grim proposition. A
New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday shows Trump trailing badly
in six key battleground states, all states he carried four years ago. In each of
the three states that proved vital to Trump whisking the presidency away from
Hillary ClintonMichigan, Wisconsin, and PennsylvaniaTrump is trailing Biden by
double digits. Even worse for Trump is that he is now behind by significant
margins in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, three states he won by close
but more comfortable margins last time out.
President Trump has lost significant ground in the 6 battleground states that
clinched his 2016 Electoral College victory, a New York Times/Siena College poll
His once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished, @Nate_Cohn
The New York Times (@nytimes) June 25, 2020
Without the three Midwestern states, each of which Trump carried by a fraction
of a point, Trump would not be president today. Trump likely needs to win all
three states in November, but his support has dipped since October of last year,
when the same poll had Biden up by just an average of 2 points across the same
six battleground states. Trump is now trailing Biden among white voters (though
narrowly) in these three states after riding a 10-point lead in that demographic
to the presidency in 2016.
Overall in the six states, Mr. Biden holds a 5534 lead among white voters with
at least a four-year college degree, an 11-point gain from October. White voters
under age 35 now back Mr. Biden by a margin of 50 percent to 31 percent, up from
an all-but-tied race in October, the New York Times notes. White voters with
more conservative attitudes on racial issues appear to have soured on Mr. Trump
in recent months, and yet they have not embraced Mr. Biden.