2020-05-21 16:01:04 UTC
obstacle' to him winning, new model predicts
*A new Oxford Economics model predicts Trump will lose November election
*It posits Trump will win just 33% of popular vote due to Covid-19 recession
*Said it will take an 'economic miracle' for pocketbooks to favor Trump
*Model would see Joe Biden flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - undoing
Trump's 2016 victory
*He would also take Ohio, Iowa and Missouri in the mid-west as well as North
Carolina - although not Arizona, which is a major Democratic target
A new model has predicted that President Trump will lose the 2020 election by a
landslide due to the floundering economy amid the coronavirus crisis.
The national election model released by Oxford Economics on Wednesday predicted
rising unemployment and inflation will prevent Trump from being reelected.
The study predicted that the president would win just 35 per cent of the popular
vote, which marks a sharp turn-around from the group's pre-coronavirus
prediction which put Trump at winning 55 per cent of the vote.
Oxford Economics predicted the coronavirus recession will see the president
suffer a 'historic' defeat, common for sitting presidents running for reelection
amid an economic crisis.
'It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor
Trump,' the report concluded.
The model has proven accurate in its predictions every year since 1948, except
from 1968 and 1976, and works off the assumption that the U.S. economy will not
have bounced back from the pandemic by this autumn, with unemployment rates
above 13 per cent, and household incomes six per cent lower.
'The economy would still be in a worse state than at the depth of the Great
Depression,' the report said.
'An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income
nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the
economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.'
According to the group, the economic factors point to a clear Democratic win
come November, although voter turnout and the evolution of the pandemic could be
crucial in determining which way it will swing.