Discussion:
From the people who make a living assessing probability
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super70s
2018-08-28 06:11:24 UTC
Permalink
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/

Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018

It was a bad week for President Donald Trump, but oddsmakers believe it
could get even worse. They have adjusted their lines for the chances of
Trump getting impeached, and it is at its lowest mark since he was
elected.

Bovada now has the chances of him being impeached at +120 for yes, -150
for no. That is down from -200 for a yes a month ago. PaddyPower has it
as 6/4 yes, 1/2 no, also a drop from July. Bookmakers do believe if he
dodges impeachment, however, he would be re-elected in 2020.

Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Apati told the Express newspaper in London that
sportsbooks have been busy adjusting odds after news of two Trump
associates in trouble with the law.

"It's been a busy week in the world of politics and the latest news has
led to punters predicting an impeachment before the end of Trump's first
term," Apati said.

Plea Deal, Convictions Move Markets

Trump's impeachment odds had already taken a hit after his one-on-one
with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in July. The meeting
was heavily criticized by both republican and democrat congressmen, and
brought up the issue of whether Russians meddled in the 2016 election.

Then this week two members of inner circle are facing jail time for
financial crimes, one relating to Trump's election. Former campaign
manager Paul Manafort was found guilty on two counts of bank fraud, five
counts of tax fraud and one charge of failing to disclose foreign bank
accounts.

That verdict was quickly followed by news that Trump's former personal
lawyer Michael Cohen had reached a plea deal with federal prosecutors on
eight criminal counts including tax fraud, false statements to a bank
and campaign finance violations tied to his work for Trump. The most
damaging to the president was Cohen's assertion that Trump directed him
to make payments from campaign funds to women he believed could
negatively affect his run for the White House.

Cohen attorney Lanny Davis said in a statement: "This is Michael
fulfilling his promise made on July 2nd to put his family and country
first and tell the truth about Donald Trump. Today he stood up and
testified under oath that Donald Trump directed him to commit a crime by
making payments to two women for the principal purpose of influencing an
election. If those payments were a crime for Michael Cohen, then why
wouldn't they be a crime for Donald Trump?"

Trump and Giuliani Defiant

Meanwhile, Trump and his new attorney Rudy Giuliani have made numerous
statements defending the president's actions, and predicting doom and
gloom if he was impeached.

Trump went on Fox News and said the economy would be ruined if Congress
tried to take such a measure against him.

"I tell you what, if I ever got impeached, I think the market would
crash, I think everybody would be very poor," Trump said on Thursday.
You would see numbers that you wouldn't believe in reverse."

Giuliani followed that up with remarks that the US people wouldn't
tolerate an impeachment.

"You'd only impeach him for political reasons, and the American people
would revolt against that," Giuliani said. "I think it's inevitable that
he won't be impeached. President Trump is completely cleared."

#
DoD
2018-08-28 06:25:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...

From people that make a living at assessing probability...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Their new tag line... "we'll help you go broke!!!"
--
People that are unwilling to admit to their own
shortcomings, discredit the achievement of others
by transforming it into "privilege".

"White privilege" is a term used by sore losers.
Don't be a sore loser.

Candace Owens
Clave
2018-08-28 06:44:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
--
"In the dull-knife analogy, he's a spoon."
- whoyakidding, speaking of the congenital liar and chiseler, Mark Wieber
Tommy
2018-08-28 12:52:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
Miloch
2018-08-28 14:57:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree' from Trump
University was worthless?



*
Tommy
2018-08-28 15:02:55 UTC
Permalink
september.org..
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
.
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after
Manafort Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree' from
Trump University was worthless?
*
"hate" it's the new left.
Miloch
2018-08-28 15:16:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tommy
september.org..
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
.
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after
Manafort Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree' from
Trump University was worthless?
*
"hate" it's the new left.
Errr...ahhhh...ya...that's it, Tommy-Kins! On the left, just hatin' &
hatin'...and lovin' every minute of it!


*
Tommy
2018-08-28 16:08:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
september.org..
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
.
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after
Manafort Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree'
from Trump University was worthless?
*
"hate" it's the new left.
Errr...ahhhh...ya...that's it, Tommy-Kins! On the left, just hatin' &
hatin'...and lovin' every minute of it!
*
No agenda, just hate.
Miloch
2018-08-28 16:50:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tommy
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
september.org..
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
.
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after
Manafort Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling lefty
response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree'
from Trump University was worthless?
*
"hate" it's the new left.
Errr...ahhhh...ya...that's it, Tommy-Kins! On the left, just hatin' &
hatin'...and lovin' every minute of it!
*
No agenda, just hate.
...oh stop it!!...you're making me weep!


*
Tommy
2018-08-28 17:08:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
september.org..
Post by Miloch
Post by Tommy
Post by Clave
Post by DoD
.
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after
Manafort Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
Keep whistling past the graveyard, faggot.
You had to throw in that "faggot" remark, typical name calling
lefty response.
...did ya ever get your money back after realizing that 'degree'
from Trump University was worthless?
*
"hate" it's the new left.
Errr...ahhhh...ya...that's it, Tommy-Kins! On the left, just hatin'
& hatin'...and lovin' every minute of it!
*
No agenda, just hate.
...oh stop it!!...you're making me weep!
*
Like you did whem Hillary lost?
PIBB
2018-08-28 12:15:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
From people that make a living at assessing probability...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Their new tag line... "we'll help you go broke!!!"
They didn't realize how much influence the Russians would have on the
election. It was unprecedented. The influence was also carefully
targeted by Kusher's Cambridge Analytica.

Also Trump and Stone arranged for Assange to release the DNC emails.

It was hard to predict Comey would mishandle his annoucement to reopen
the email inquiry 11 days before the election.
NoBody
2018-08-29 10:37:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by PIBB
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
From people that make a living at assessing probability...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Their new tag line... "we'll help you go broke!!!"
They didn't realize how much influence the Russians would have on the
election. It was unprecedented. The influence was also carefully
targeted by Kusher's Cambridge Analytica.
Fantasy-boy is at it again!
Post by PIBB
Also Trump and Stone arranged for Assange to release the DNC emails.
Fantasy-boy again...
Gronk
2018-09-01 06:25:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by DoD
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Reach Tremendous Levels after Manafort
Trial, Cohen Plea
By John Reger on August 24, 2018
Nothing new.... yawn...
From people that make a living at assessing probability...
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Their new tag line... "we'll help you go broke!!!"
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Our forecast has Clinton winning the national popular vote by 3.6
percentage points, which is similar to her lead in recent national polls.
Her chances of winning the popular vote are 81 percent, according to our
forecast.

So what’s the source of all the uncertainty? And why does the same model1
that gave Mitt Romney only a 9 percent chance of winning the Electoral
College on the eve of the 2012 election put Trump’s chances about three
times higher — 28 percent — this year? It basically comes down to three
things: ...



https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/nate-silver-predicts-close-2016-presidential-race/story?id=43329272

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/09/nate-silvers-fivethirtyeight-proves-its-worth-with-another-close-election-prediction.html

Silver and the data-analysis website he founded, FiveThirtyEight, were
alone in predicting a deeply unsettled 2016 race for the presidency. In
recent days, he had been derided for saying a Donald Trump presidency was
very much possible, and that a Clinton win and a Clinton landslide were
also potential outcomes: the race was just too unpredictable to be
certain. Most observers — pollsters and pundits alike — had predicted a
confident win for Hillary Clinton and a near-definite downfall for Trump.
Tommy
2018-08-28 12:51:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by super70s
https://www.onlinegambling.com/news/2018/08/trump-impeachment-
odds-reach-tremendous-levels-after-manafort-trial-cohen-plea/
This is how the left get their information...Haw Haw Haw
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